Saw it on phalanx, did the math, stuck the landing time on a sticky and waited.

First Fleet
The attacker has won the battle !
You receive 183.733 units of Metal, 7.241 units of Crystal and 394.871 units of Deuterium.
The attacker has lost a total of 0 units.
The defender has lost a total of 23.902.400 units.
A debris field containing 7.615.440 units of Metal and 4.411.500 units of Crystal has formed in orbit around the planet.
The probability of creating a moon is : 19 %

Second Fleet
The attacker has won the battle !
You receive 1.807.569 units of Metal, 1.103.888 units of Crystal and 1.854.165 units of Deuterium.
The attacker has lost a total of 340.000 units.
The defender has lost a total of 204.729.600 units.
A debris field containing 79.874.460 units of Metal and 41.581.200 units of Crystal has formed in orbit around the planet.
The probability of creating a moon is : 19 %