Karroth's answer is correct. Your logic, sunyujie, is obviously wrong because the sum of your probabities is greater than 1, which is impossible. Probabilities must = 1.
Anyone who can't quite accept the logic of this can test it very simply and easily with an ace and a pair of twos from any pack of cards. Pick a card, then discard a two, and then note whether staying or switching would get you the ace. Repeat 30 times and you will see that switching does indeed get you the ace twice as often.
Re: Forum Games: Solve the riddle
#311
Last edited by SpacemanSpiff on Thu Mar 31, 2011 8:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the Spiffiest of them all?
Do Science Responsibly: Don't Do Science and Drive
"While it's good to learn from experience, it is better to learn from other people's experience" - Warren Buffett
Do Science Responsibly: Don't Do Science and Drive
"While it's good to learn from experience, it is better to learn from other people's experience" - Warren Buffett